Industry Future Development and Policy Orientation
(I) Global Environment
1. Polypropylene production capacity will further increase in the future. It is expected that the world PP production capacity will increase to 76.31 million tons/year in 2016, and the demand will increase to 62.42 million tons/year;
2. In 2020, the global polypropylene production capacity will increase to 93.04 million tons per year, and the demand will increase to 76.88 million tons per year;
3. In the future, the supply of polypropylene will be mainly concentrated in four regions: Asia, the Middle East, North America and Western Europe. In 2015, the production capacity of the above regions will account for 90% of the world's total;
4. In the future, Asia will be the main driving force for the growth of PP demand, while the slowdown in demand growth in Western Europe and North America, the Middle East is still the main export of PP;
5. In the future, new capacity in Asia will be higher than in other regions. In 2015, production capacity will increase to 41.66 million tons per year, output will be about 34 million tons, and demand will increase to 35.1 million tons, with a gap of nearly 1.1 million tons;
6. Before 2015, there was no new installation for polypropylene in North America;
7. In the future world polypropylene consumption, the diaphragm (PP folding box, PP plastic box, PP transparent box) and woven products will have a higher growth rate, higher than the average growth level of PP total demand. It is expected that by 2016, the injection molding industry will continue to Is the largest application area of polypropylene, accounting for about 33% of PP demand, followed by the diaphragm (PP packaging sheet, etc.) and woven products, accounting for 24% and 19.4% of the proportion;
8. In the next few years, Asia will be driven by fibers and membranes, and the demand for PP will maintain a rapid growth. The average annual growth rate is higher than the world average growth rate. It is estimated that the demand for PP in Asia will increase to 37.35 million tons in 2015. The main application area is injection molding. 30.2%, braided products 26.6%, diaphragm 25.8%;
9. In the future, the demand for PP in North America will maintain a relatively stable growth. The growth rate is slightly lower than the average annual growth in the world. It is expected that the demand for North America in 2015 will be 8.79 million tons, and the application field will be concentrated on 32.4% of injection-molded products and 17.2% of diaphragms;
10. In the future, the demand for PP in Western Europe will grow slowly, with a demand of 78,200 tons in 2015. The largest application area is injection molding 40.1%, diaphragm 25.2;
(II) Domestic situation
1. China's GDP is in the period of economic structural adjustment, and the economic operating pressure is greater;
2. At the same time, CPI and PPI have also experienced positive price transmission driven by rising prices of upstream raw materials. Since October 2011, they have turned into reverse price restraint, which is weakened by downstream demand, and the difference has not diminished. Suppression of the price of industrial products.
(three) Three factors affect the price of polypropylene
1, the international crude oil price fluctuations: From historical data, crude oil price fluctuations affect downstream product prices, but the most obvious depends on the naphtha price fluctuations;
2. Capacity increase in foreign countries: In 2015, the polypropylene production capacity in the Middle East is expected to increase to 9.19 million tons per year, which is more than North America. At that time, the output will be about 7.48 million tons, and the demand will be 4.34 million tons with a surplus of 3.14 million tons; the production capacity will further increase to 1224 in 2020. 10,000 tons;
3. The demand for downstream processing climbed: The consumption and export of various downstream plastic products can smoothly pass on the increase in upstream costs, and PP prices will also be affected by the lack of demand.